I am at a conference on National Safety & Security in The Hague. It's only just kicking off but last night participants were invited to a dinner and I managed to sit next to Peter Schwartz, the co-founder and chairman of Global Business Network and former head of scenario planning for Shell.

We were just about to dig into the main course when Peter answers a question from across the table on climate change... He pauses and says, ‘of course climate change is a major risk but there is something bigger around the corner...’. I have to wait for his presentation this afternoon to find out what.

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