Daniel Finkelstein
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If it wasn’t for Jimmy Savile I’d be dead. I suppose it was inevitable that one day I would run my car smack into the side of a bus and that it would happen because I was discussing the centrality of regional government to the German social market model when I should have been watching the road. But when the moment came I didn’t die.
You see, I had followed the old DJ’s advice from the adverts of my youth — I had clunk clicked. And my seatbelt saved my life. So you may think what I am about to say perverse. I don’t think making people wear seatbelts saves lives.
In his book Risk, John Adams, of University College London, explains it all very simply. Yes, if you are in a crash your seatbelt may well save your life. Yet you are more likely to be in a crash if you wear a seatbelt. Why? Because with the belt on you feel safer, and may drive more carelessly. So making the wearing of seatbelts compulsory does not reduce the number of fatal accidents, it redistributes them from the driver to the people they crash into.
The data produced by the professor to support his view on seatbelts are very convincing. Yet the detailed dissection of car accident data is less important than the more general point that arises out of his work. People don’t just sit still and allow themselves to be regulated by government, they change their behaviour in response to the law. And they may do so in ways that render the regulation worse than useless.
My car accident happened 15 years ago and Risk was published in 1995. So why am I telling you all this now? Because of David Cameron and the speeches he’s been making about absent fathers.
It was in his party conference speech last year, that Mr Cameron first started talking about his big theme: social responsibility. What this meant, it turned out, was that he intended to encourage people — retailers, families, faith schools — to behave responsibly, but that he wouldn’t necessarily do that through new laws. And the response was predictable: what does all this amount to? Where are his policies? Where’s the beef? Fine, so David Cameron doesn’t like absent fathers, thinks they are as bad as drunk drivers, but what is he actually going to do?
I find myself almost alone as a social responsibility militant. I don’t just believe that government can change behaviour through persuasion as well as through law, I believe that persuasion is often much more effective than law. In fact, I believe that laws won’t work without persuasion.
Some new research may help you to understand why. Last year Parliament agreed a ban on smoking in public places. Medical evidence of the harmful nature of passive smoking was critical to this decision. But strangely, studies that measure the impact of smoking bans on nonsmokers have been remarkably thin on the ground.
Now Jérôme Adda and Francesca Cornaglia have attempted to fill this gap with a paper published by Bonn’s Institute for the Study of Labour. The authors have used data on cotinine concentration in body fluids, a measure of the impact of passive smoking that is routinely used in medical literature. They then looked at how the cotinine data changed as policy changed in different parts of the United States. They also broke the data down so that the impact of policy on different age groups and classes could be analysed.
Their results are striking and show just how impoverished was the debate we had before the smoking ban was agreed. Bans do not reduce passive smoking — they redistribute it. Better-off adults show less signs of exposure, while poorer children are more exposed. The public health lobby promoted the smoking ban partly because of their intense concern about health inequality. The bad news from the new study is that smoking bans increase health inequality.
If you ban smoking in restaurants and bars, some users — those who are mainly social smokers — may indeed give up. But others simply go home and smoke. In winter they stay indoors, close the windows and allow their children’s cotinine concentration to soar.
Taxes have a different impact. They reduce the impact of passive smoking among children, but not among adults. Tax increases reduce the number of cigarettes that people smoke, but there is some evidence that they actually smoke more of each fag. Tax also appears to increase the proportion of cigarettes smoked at home rather than socially.
The new paper, then, echoes Adams’s seatbelt findings. People don’t just sit still and let government act on them.
One idea, of course, would be to ban smoking in the home as well. The problem is that you would have to enforce such a ban. Quite apart from the civil liberties questions, how would you do that? How would you find the resources for a start?
So what would work? The answer lies in Scandinavian drink-drive statistics, as answers often do. In the 1970s it was believed that Scandinavia owed its low rate of alcohol-induced accidents to its draconian legislation. Then H. Laurence Ross produced his study, The Scandinavian Myth. Ross’s data suggested that drink-drive laws only work when they ratify strong and well-established public opinion. The law follows changing behaviour rather than the other way round. A ban won’t stop people smoking at home, but social pressure might. Laws won’t make absent fathers look after their children, but social disapproval might.
That’s why I am a social responsibility militant. All talk and no action, that’s my slogan. Where’s the beef? Who cares.

Daniel Finkelstein is a weekly columnist and Comment Editor of The Times. His blog, Comment Central, is a personal round up of the best political opinion on the web. Before joining the paper in 2001, he was adviser to both Prime Minister John Major and Conservative leader William Hague
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I like this article. But in relation to the smoking ban, Scotland ( where I live) is a much better place to go out now the ban is here. The law is widely upheld without enforcement being required, and even amongst those who smoke is regarded as a great thing. The redistribution behaviour is perhaps that parents who neglect their children by going to the pub (and smoking) now perhaps neglect them by staying at home and smoking. Is that a greater or lesser evil? Bad parenting is a different antisocial behaviour to smoking.
David Bell, LARKHALL, UK
Surely, Daniel, you do not go far enough. We should not have laws that impose opinion. If one person wants to smoke and the building owner permits him, then he should surely be able to smoke. It is not wrong to smoke. Therefore it should not be illegal.
Governments should only legislate where there is some need to clarify. The American founding fathers had ways of dealing with the tyranny of the majority. We should always presume individual liberty as opposed to any greater good decided by some 'elite' group of MPs. We should allow people the freedom to enact their beliefs and opinions, even if we do not agree with them. I don't smoke - for lots of reasons - but we should defend the rights of others to smoke - after all, they ENJOY it.
Shaun Hexter, London, UK
In the twenty years I have travelling - regularly- from Lancaster to Edinburgh - I only saw maintenance workers on the line prior to privatisation. Have not seen any maintenance gangs at all for past few years. I make a point to look for them.
B Youren, Lancaster, Lancs
As happens quite often, George Washington said it best: Government is not reason, it is not eloquence, it is force; .. Government is set up to use force, not persuasion; it is integral to its nature. It doesnt matter if persuasion would be more effective, it certainly doesnt matter if persuasion is economically more efficient. Government will always choose to use force when it offers a plausible solution; when that doesnt work, the next solution will be to use more force. Only when force is evidently impractical will other solutions receive real consideration and even then any government is likely to find someway to make force part of the equation.
David Easlea, Philadelphia, USA
The best reason for banning smoking in public places is that it stinks.
Talking of risk, of course the best way to protect your children from drowning is to ensure that they don't learn to swim. If they can't swim, they won't go into the water and will not be at risk. The chances of falling into deep water accidentally are much less than the chances of overestimating one's swimming ability.
Frank Upton, Solihull,
There is nothing particularly surprising in saying that a law that restricts an activity (ie smoking in bars) simply redistributes the activity elsewhere (ie smoking at home). A double yellow line simply ensures a driver parks somewhere else. Persuasion is of course the key to actually reducing the activity. However what is also obvious is that laws that restrict are often inherently persuasive simply by making the activity less convenient, more expensive, less socially acceptable or a combination of all three. Enough double yellow lines and the driver ends up taking the bus. Daniel glosses quickly over the smokers who may smoke less or not at all once they are unable to do so with pint in hand in a pub but, leaving aside the civil liberties arguments, this effect of the law should not be sniffed (or coughed?) at.
Geoff, London,
You only have to look at speed limits to see there is some truth in this concept. It's clearly illegal to speed but most people consider it par for the course to some extent or another.
Even a massive industry devoted to the apprehension and punishment of offenders has failed to prevent this - why, because most people don't feel guilty about it, simple as that.
Wearing a seatbelt/crash helmet is seen by most to be in their best interest and not too much of an imposition and is therefore accepted.
QED
Geoff Munt, South Croydon,
Getting away with infringements of minor (or petty) rules is considered by many to be part of the game of life, but no-one wants to incur the disapproval of his friends. Ask any school child about peer pressure. As Mr. Finkelstein well knows, one of the adult forms of social pressure is through articles such as his own; perhaps through social pressure we can encourage responsibility. Laws can help; they can also hinder. It depends on the care and vision of those who frame them.
Gordon Cardew, Norwich, Norfolk
Article of the Year. No doubt about it.
Excellent stuff, Daniel.
Could you now turn your piercing attention to these Absent Fathers, please? How many are the media's favourite degenerate layabouts deserving of social antipathy and how many are excluded from their children's lives by paternity fraud, jealous and bitter mothers, unrealistic child support demands etc.? Will ratcheting up the social or legal anathema help or hinder their children's condition?
Rob Wilard, Reading,
That's just not accurate.
Personal responsibility is important, but we have a section of any population, whether because of poor parenting or some other reason, who do not have it.
We also have a known population of psychopaths or near-paychopaths, again in any population.
Then we have those who abuse various drugs, often resulting in thjeir not behaving with any sense of personal responsibility.
Laws also serve importantly as statements of a society's ideals and intentions.
John Chuckman, Toronto, Canada
Nice piece Danny but on smoking you're stretching a point. Public opinion is largely with the ban. In fact the government's original proposals didn't go far enough for parliament/ the public and became the total smokefree workplace law which starts on July 1.
Tony Ellis, Birkenhead, Merseyside
I agree with the notion of persuasion, but in this day and age
would merely advocate that the funding that goes behind it is
channeled wisely into accountable, and responsible mechanisms
with genuine ROI measures.
So yes, let's have no more 'fine first, figure out a solution later' social
divisions created, but equally let's not see all useful funding poured
into black-hole govt. and quango (same paymaster, different branding
empires and immense comms budgets that serve only to keep ad
agencies, media buying houses and the guys they are hired by
entertained.
Peter 'Junkkdotcom' Martin, Ross on Wye, UK
I agree with ANS from Wallasey that laws often have unintended consequences, which often start lobby groups demanding another law, and then another, with each one encroaching slightly further on our personal freedoms.
RTS, Worcester,
After a successful day buying trinkets and other important things for my mother a sister, I came across your article.
You are around the twist and up the bend if you belive all that mumbo jumbo.
Weaver, Hong Kong,
An interesting article, but I think it underestimates the impact law can have in changing opinions and helping to make behaviour socially unacceptable. Drink driving is one example. Another is the Race Relations Act 1973 - this did not change behaviour overnight, but did have a contribution to making discrimination on the grounds of race socially unacceptable. Most of the time, people see law as having a certain moral force, and this can change opinions over time.
I also wonder whether Daniel is conflating the ineffectiveness of law when it is not backed up by popular opinion with the potential of all laws to have unintended consequences. These are not the same thing.
Ben, London,
If you are seriously crediting Jimmy Savile with your road safety, I am not sure how you expect any government to know how to be persuasive - at least, as far as you are concerned - and you are thus actually making a very good case for law rather than mere persuasion, since it was the seat belt that saved your life, not Jimmy Savile. I think you are identifying the fact that there necessarily exists a causal environment that will precede any legislation; but that causal environment, its real nature and degree, wont necessarily be known to many people, and thus those people will inevitably complain at what seems to be an infringement of their liberty. I think it is more a matter of your confidence in authority. Does the government have a genuine concern for the general welfare or is everything they do governed by its beneficial effect, or otherwise, on a particular minority? Casinos are a current case in this context.
Henry Percy, London, UK
What about governments role in incentivising pro-social behaviour in order to encourage personal and social responsibility? Is not part of our problem that Parliament is constituted to make laws that inevitably have penalities of one sort or another attached for transgression. Do we need a moritorium of sorts on new law making?
RJH, London, UK
What bold statements from Daniel!
Bold but very true.
The Smoking ban was sold on very selective 'evidence' with no thought of social or environmental consequences.
Even the Partial Regulatory Impact Assessment that concentrated on economic benefits was amazingly flawed and unquestioned.
- £ minimal for alterations to premises but businesses are putting vast amounts of cash into providing outdoor areas.
- £1 million for Education yet £12.5 million was spent on adverts such as the distasteful 'hook' advert. and those wrongly suggesting dangerous quantities of everyday chemicals in smoke.
- Between £5 million and £13 million for Enforcement but we have just seen that £29.5 million is to be provided.
The suffering of smokers was considered to be 'trivial' and there simply wasn't any downside to this great social engineering scheme simply because everything was stage-managed and 'peer-reviewed' by activist groups.
MPs and the public were misled!
ChrisB, Cornwall,
As usual Finklestein is too clever by a half. By all means be as persuasive as possible but if there is a law in force it has to be upheld. At the moment the authorities are very eclectic; enforce smoking bans, ignore the law on underage sex are examples. This ruins any chance of getting a grip.
Dr J Findlater, Carnforth,
Is it any wonder that evidence of the dangers of passive smoking is thin on the ground? It is always the single issue pressure groups that appear to get their way today. And their campaigns seem inevitably to result in the removal of yet another personal freedom.
Whether it is fox-hunting, smoking or even anonymity (ID cards), the power of state intrusion into our lives rises inexorably.
Edwin Thornber, Bucharest, Romania
I agree. There is overwhelming evidence that social pressure is more effective than laws in encouraging positive behaviour and also that most laws aimed at regulating behaviour have unintended consequences.
Unfortunately evidence rarely wins an argument but I hope that this excellent contribution helps to steer opinion away from placing responsibilty for personal behaviour on Government and onto the individual where, at least I believe, it belongs.
ANS, Wallasey, UK